Market Volatility in Metallurgical & New Energy Raw Materials: Coking Coal Retreats from Highs, Polysilicon Prices Hold Firm

Recent global commodity markets, particularly in raw materials closely tied to metallurgy and new energy, have experienced significant "roller-coaster" price swings, drawing widespread attention. As a professional supplier of metallurgical and new energy materials, Henan Fengyang continuously monitors market dynamics. We provide the following analysis of current price trends and supply-demand fundamentals for key raw materials.

Significant Pullback After Rally, Focus Shifts to Supply-Demand Fundamentals

The coking coal spot market has seen a noticeable correction following a rapid upswing. Data shows that since late June, domestic Shanxi primary coking coal prices had surged by over 400 RMB/ton at their peak, while Mongolian #5 Primary Coking Coal port spot prices had accumulated gains of approximately 340 RMB/ton. However, sentiment cooled markedly towards the end of July, putting downward pressure on spot prices. For instance, Mongolian #5 Coking Coal port offers have retreated from the peak of around 1,050 RMB/ton to the range of 960-1,000 RMB/ton

This correction stems primarily from the excessive speed of the previous rally, a retreat in speculative sentiment, and profit-taking. Market focus is now returning to fundamentals:

• Supply: Domestic coal production may face constraints on resumption rates due to factors like overproduction audits; subsequent policy enforcement warrants close attention. Mongolian coal imports have stabilized at moderate-to-high levels, with port inventories showing signs of bottoming out.
• Demand: Downstream steel mills and coking plants have seen inventory levels rise after a phase of restocking. The sustainability of purchasing momentum depends on actual demand strength.
• Outlook: Coking coal spot prices are expected to enter a phase of consolidation in the near term. Future movements will likely track actual supply-demand shifts more closely. Purchasers are advised to monitor inventory transfer patterns and potential increases in imported coal volumes to adjust procurement strategies accordingly

 

 

 

Polysilicon spot prices have demonstrated relative resilience, holding firm at elevated levels. Current mainstream tax-included spot offers for N-type recycled material are concentrated in the 47-49 RMB/kg range, representing a near 30% monthly increase. This strength is primarily supported by policy expectations (e.g., industry consolidation, capacity rationalization) and active price support initiatives from major upstream producers.

 

However, underlying pressures require attention:

 

• Supply: Resumption of production in Southwest China during the high-water season has driven July polysilicon output to an estimated 110,000 MT, marking a nearly 10% month-on-month increase.
• Demand: The solar terminal market has cooled post the installation rush. High-priced modules have dampened installation enthusiasm, leading to significant sequential declines in domestic newly-added PV capacity in June and July. Overall industry inventory digestion cycles remain lengthy.
• Outlook: Polysilicon prices are caught between strong policy expectations and weak real-world demand fundamentals. Spot prices may oscillate at high levels in the short term, but sustained upward momentum could be capped by end-demand absorption capacity and incremental supply releases. Purchasers should closely monitor the progress of policy implementation and marginal changes in terminal demand.

Henan Fengyang Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., deeply rooted in international markets, understands the impact of raw material price fluctuations on our clients' production planning. We remain committed to closely tracking spot market price dynamics, supply-demand shifts, and policy developments for key materials like coking coal and polysilicon. Leveraging our robust supply chain resources and professional market analysis capabilities, we provide timely and reliable market intelligence and procurement support to our global partners. We empower you to navigate market volatility, seize opportunities, and optimize sourcing decisions.