China's Black Metals Market Outlook 2026: Opportunities And Challenges in Structural Adjustment

The core contradiction in the steel market will shift from demand-side to supply-side in 2026. Continued weakness in real estate investment is expected to reduce demand for construction steel. Meanwhile, the new "steel export licensing system," aimed at enhancing export quality, may cut exports of primary products by approximately 20 million tons, redirecting this supply pressure back to the domestic market.
Consequently, industry hopes are pinned on supply-side policy controls. "Anti-internal competition" policies centered on carbon emission controls are anticipated to accelerate, facilitating the orderly exit of outdated capacity, optimizing supply-demand dynamics, and potentially restoring mill profits. Analysts predict that rebar and hot-rolled coil prices will largely fluctuate within a range in 2026, with sustained unilateral trends being difficult to achieve.

The raw material sector faces clear oversupply pressures. For iron ore, incremental supply from overseas mines (e.g., the Simandou project in Guinea) and domestic sources is projected to exceed 60 million tons. Coupled with an expected decline in domestic pig iron production suppressing demand, port inventories are likely to remain high, pressuring the price floor downward.
The coking coal and coke markets also struggle to escape oversupply. Coking coal imports are forecast to rise, while coke production remains high amid substantial capacity. Demand is constrained by declining molten iron output from steel mills. Profits for coking enterprises will remain under pressure, with the overall trend of raw material concessions to finished products persisting throughout 2026.

For markets like ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, 2026 will extend the "high supply, weak demand" fundamental pattern. Demand from steel mills weakens alongside falling molten iron output, sustaining inventory pressures. However, the cost side will act as a crucial stabilizer. Relatively stable electricity prices in major producing regions and historically low port inventories for manganese ore provide solid periodic cost support for silicomanganese prices. The market is expected to seesaw between "oversupply pressure" and "cost rigidity," with prices mainly oscillating at lower levels. Opportunities for corrective rebounds following periods of deep losses warrant attention.

• In the complex, structurally divergent, and game-theoretic market of 2026, stability and foresight are more critical than ever. Henan Fengyang Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. deeply understands the volatility and challenges at each link of the industrial chain.

• In response to the cost-support dynamics of the ferroalloy market, we leverage our extensive industry network and deep insight into raw material markets. We are committed to providing clients with stable supply solutions and professional cost analysis, helping partners navigate procurement timing amidst price volatility. We recognize that within the broader trend of raw material concessions to finished products, downstream clients' needs for cost control are increasingly urgent.

• Therefore, we not only ensure a stable supply of high-quality ferroalloy products but also strive to be a strategic partner in our clients' supply chains. By sharing market analysis and optimizing inventory management strategies, we help clients navigate uncertainties arising from macro factors like export policy changes and industry "anti-internal competition," jointly seeking definitive value within a "range-bound" market.